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Predicting Alpha Strategy Masterclass

This course is why you're here. It's your key to selling options profitably.

This course teaches you our ETF Premium and Earnings Premium strategies. You'll learn step-by-step how to build and manage a winning option selling portfolio.

Start Learning

Duration: 3h 30m

Recommended ETF Trades

Here are the best trades to place today for the ETF strategy based on backtest performance. Click here for strategy details.

Avg. Trade Return -

Win Rate -

- - -

No recommendations today.

Recommended Earnings Trades

Here are the best trades to take today for the Earnings Strategy based on backtest performance. Click here for strategy details.

Total Return -

- -

No recommendations today.

Apply what you learned

Strategy Masterclass Back To Home

Prerequisites

Chapter 1 - Trading Fundamentals

Course Introduction

What Running a Profitable Book Looks Like

Mastering The Variance Risk Premium

Chapter 2 - ETF Premium Strategy

How the ETF Premium Strategy Works

Strategy Profitability & Options

Finding Trades for the ETF Premium Strategy

Structuring and Managing Trades

Using the ETF dashboard

Margin Utilization and Trade Sizing

Chapter 3 - Earnings Premium Strategy

How the Earnings Premium Strategy Works

How to Find Earnings Trades

What Structure Do We Trade?

Trade Management and Execution

Using the Earnings Dashboard

Earnings Case Study: +$224k Profit 2 Years

Final Exam

Final Exam (Test Your Knowledge!)

Bonus Strategies

The Weekend Strategy

The Calendar Spread Strategy

Previous Next

Ticker Analysis

Last Updated: N/A

Recommended ETF Trades:

Switch to Earnings

Apple Inc. AAPL

Price

Implied Volatility

Avg. Option Volume

Market Cap

Next Earnings

Variance Risk Premium
Earnings
Skew
Term Structure
Company & News

Avg. VRP

from past 4 years

Avg. Return on Short Straddle

from past 4 years

IV Percentile

from past year

Variance Risk Premium

Analyze the VRP, or the difference between IV and future realized volatility, to see if a premium has been consistent over the past 4 years.

Volatility Type

Insights

Latest VRP

The VRP for the most recent 30-day window is -.

No data
Risk Premium Frequency

The VRP exists in - of days over the last 4 years.

No data
Median Option Volume

The 4 year median option volume is - contracts traded daily.

No data

Hedged Short Straddle Backtest

Cumulative dollar returns from shorting $10k notional of at-the-money 30DTE straddles with daily delta hedging.

Unit

Insights

Total Return

The cumulative sum of returns is -. The average return on each trade is -.

No data
Win Rate

Of the - trades that are placed, - are winners.

No data
Max Loss

The largest single trade loss is -.

No data
Trade Entry Cost

The median bid-ask spread (normalized by the mid price) is -.

No data

Volatility Time Series

INFO

Compare implied, forecasted and realized volatility to measure risk premiums and determine if options are cheap or expensive. Customize metrics for a comprehensive analysis.

The following average and comparison metrics are calculated using the past 16 earnings.

Next Earnings

Avg. Straddle PnL

Implied Earnings Move

Avg. Earnings Move

Avg. Earnings Jump

Max Earnings Move

IV Crush

Historical Analysis

INFO

Compare implied moves to next day price changes to identify individual event profitability and post-earnings price drifts. Use the dropdown to change view to IV or straddle price changes.

Hedged Short Straddle Backtest

INFO

Cumulative percent returns from shorting at-the-money straddles with a minimum of 5 DTE, delta-hedged at entry.

Implied Earnings Move

INFO

Visualize changes in the implied earnings move over time to forecast changes as the event approaches.

Earnings Moves Distribution

INFO

Compare implied and realized move distributions to identify market biases and directional trading opportunities.

Seasonal Plot

INFO

Visualize seasonal variations in realized earnings moves to identify seasonal trends in move sizes.

Skew Structure

Compare IV difference for different strikes on 10DTE, 30DTE and 90DTE expirations to find relatively cheap and expensive strikes.

Skew Timeseries

Analyze skew over time. Negative skew means calls are more expensive than puts, positive skew means puts are more expensive than calls.

Term Structure

See the IV differences across expirations to visualize the volatility dynamics implied by the market.

Volatility Cone

INFO

Analyze IV across expirations to identify which expiration has the highest IV relative to historic averages.

Forward Factor

between 30 and 60 dte

Forward Factor Percentile

between 30 and 60 dte

Slope

between 30 and 60 dte

Slope Percentile

between 30 and 60 dte

Forward Factor Tracker

INFO

Measure forward factor changes for different expirations to determine if it's over extended.

Forward Factors

INFO

Compare forward factor signals for different expirations to trade the one with the biggest inefficiency.

Forward Volatility Time Series

INFO

Measure current volatility spreads and compare to the past to evaluate potential trade returns.

Forward Calculator

INFO

Validate calendar spread trading opportunities by inputting live data from your brokerage to calculate the real time forward factor and determine the optimal fill price for your trade.

Option Price

Calendar
-
Front Option
-
Back Option
-

Option DTE

Front DTE
-
Back DTE
-

Forward Metrics

Forward Factor
-
Implied Volatility
-
Forward Volatility
-

Trade Metrics

Implied Move
-
Forward Move
-

News

Price Chart

INFO

Visualized historical stock prices.

Overview

Sector

Industry

Website

Description

Time Series

INFO

Use this chart for a customized analysis between tickers, dates, and metrics. Use the inputs on the top-right of this box to edit changes.

from:

to:

Key Metrics

Page Inputs

INFO

Pick the tickers you want to analyze. This automatically populates when you use the Ticker Correlation Explorer and select a ticker from the table.

Ticker (independent)

Ticker (dependent)

Total-Least-Squares Regression

This model shows the relationship between each stocks price change.

Correlation Finder

INFO

Use the dropdown to pick a ticker to and generate a list of it's most correlated tickers.Click on a ticker to further analyze it's correlation to your target ticker.

Price Comparison

View the price charts for two tickers at the same time to see how they have moved over the last year.

Rolling Correlation

INFO

60 Day rolling correlation shows if correlation is strengthening, weakening, or consistent over time. Use to predict future correlation strength.

Option Price

INFO

Determine the fair value, profitability and minimum acceptable fill price for option trades.

Implied Volatility

INFO

Calculate the volatility you traded by converting option prices to IV.

Forward Volatility

INFO

Validate calendar spread trades by calculating forward factor and your optimal fill price based on expirations and IVs in your brokerage.

Event Volatility & Move

INFO

Calculate the market implied move for future events by extracting it from option prices.

Correlation Matrix

INFO

FILTER SETTINGS

Variance Risk Premium

Analyze the VRP, or the difference between IV and future realized volatility, to see if a premium has been consistent over the past 4 years.

Insights

Hedged Short Straddle Backtest

Cumulative dollar returns from shorting $10k notional of at-the-money 30DTE straddles with daily delta hedging.

Insights

Volatility Time Series

Compare implied, forecasted and realized volatility to measure risk premiums and determine if options are cheap or expensive. Customize metrics for a comprehensive analysis.

Historical Analysis

Compare implied moves to next day price changes to identify individual event profitability and post-earnings price drifts. Use the dropdown to change view to IV or straddle price changes.

Hedged Short Straddle Backtest

Cumulative percent returns from shorting at-the-money straddles with a minimum of 5 DTE, delta-hedged at entry.

Implied Earnings Move

Visualize changes in the implied earnings move over time to forecast changes as the event approaches.

Earnings Moves Distribution

Compare implied and realized move distributions to identify market biases and directional trading opportunities.

Seasonal Plot

Visualize seasonal variations in realized earnings moves to identify seasonal trends in move sizes.

Skew Structure

Compare IV difference for different strikes on 10DTE, 30DTE and 90DTE expirations to find relatively cheap and expensive strikes.

Skew Timeseries

Analyze skew over time. Negative skew means calls are more expensive than puts, positive skew means puts are more expensive than calls.

Term Structure

See the IV differences across expirations to visualize the volatility dynamics implied by the market.

Volatility Cone

Analyze IV across expirations to identify which expiration has the highest IV relative to historic averages.

Forward Factor Tracker

Measure forward factor changes for different expirations to determine if it's over extended.

Forward Factors

Compare forward factor signals for different expirations to trade the one with the biggest inefficiency.

Forward Volatility Time Series

Measure current volatility spreads and compare to the past to evaluate potential trade returns.

Forward Calculator

Validate calendar spread trading opportunities by inputting live data from your brokerage to calculate the real time forward factor and determine the optimal fill price for your trade.

News

Price Chart

Visualized historical stock prices.

Overview

Time Series

Use this chart for a customized analysis between tickers, dates, and metrics. Use the inputs on the top-right of this box to edit changes.

Key Metrics

Page Inputs

Pick the tickers you want to analyze. This automatically populates when you use the Ticker Correlation Explorer and select a ticker from the table.

Total-Least-Squares Regression

This model shows the relationship between each stocks price change.

Correlation Finder

Use the dropdown to pick a ticker to and generate a list of it's most correlated tickers.Click on a ticker to further analyze it's correlation to your target ticker.

Price Comparison

View the price charts for two tickers at the same time to see how they have moved over the last year.

Rolling Correlation

60 Day rolling correlation shows if correlation is strengthening, weakening, or consistent over time. Use to predict future correlation strength.

Option Price

Determine the fair value, profitability and minimum acceptable fill price for option trades.

Implied Volatility

Calculate the volatility you traded by converting option prices to IV.

Forward Volatility

Validate calendar spread trades by calculating forward factor and your optimal fill price based on expirations and IVs in your brokerage.

Event Volatility & Move

Calculate the market implied move for future events by extracting it from option prices.

Correlation Matrix

Analyze the correlation between up to 5 tickers at the same time to find relative value pairs and build diversified portfolios.

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